- Baku, Baki, Azerbaijan
Gubad Ibadoghlu
Economic Research Center, Research, Post-Doc
- Dr. Gubad Ibadoghlu is an economist from Azerbaijan. He has commenced his career at Economic Research Center since 1999. He is senior analyst for social and economic studies at Azerbaijan’s Economic Research Center, a Baku-based NGO th... moreDr. Gubad Ibadoghlu is an economist from Azerbaijan. He has commenced his career at Economic Research Center since 1999. He is senior analyst for social and economic studies at Azerbaijan’s Economic Research Center, a Baku-based NGO that promotes economic development and good governance. His research focuses on macroeconomic policy and revenue management. He is conducted research at the Higher Economic School, Warsaw, at Central European University, Budapest, at University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, at Duke University and at Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, USA.Dr. Ibadoghlu is a chair of Azerbaijan Think Tank Association (ATTA). Currently, he is professor at Rutgers University and member of International Board of EITI since 2013.edit
This paper discusses the status of financial inclusion, education, and literacy in Azerbaijan as well as measures to foster the development of SMEs, which currently have inadequate access to financial resources. The primary policy... more
This paper discusses the status of financial inclusion, education, and literacy in Azerbaijan as well as measures to foster the development of SMEs, which currently have inadequate access to financial resources. The primary policy challenge faced by the government of Azerbaijan is defining its role in creating broader access to financial products and services.
This paper highlights the challenges faced in overcoming the barriers to financial inclusion, and solutions found, and discusses the main lessons learned and a potential way forward.
The first section of the paper provides detailed information on the national financial system. The second section covers the status of financial inclusion for individuals and SMEs. The third section analyzes different (supply and demand) aspects of barriers to financial inclusion, while the remaining sections present policies aimed at promoting financial regulation, literacy, and education. Finally, the paper presents key policy recommendations.
This paper highlights the challenges faced in overcoming the barriers to financial inclusion, and solutions found, and discusses the main lessons learned and a potential way forward.
The first section of the paper provides detailed information on the national financial system. The second section covers the status of financial inclusion for individuals and SMEs. The third section analyzes different (supply and demand) aspects of barriers to financial inclusion, while the remaining sections present policies aimed at promoting financial regulation, literacy, and education. Finally, the paper presents key policy recommendations.
Research Interests:
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the transition economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have kept one of the negative features of the Soviet economy – the informal sector. Despite the shift from command to market... more
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the transition economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have kept one of the negative features of the Soviet economy – the informal sector. Despite the shift from command to market economy, the informal sector has proved remarkably persistent, with significant ramifications for policies in areas as diverse as social welfare, taxation and business development. In considering the social and policy impact of illegal activities stemming from the informal economy, it is very important to have accurate and up-to-date information, not only on its size, but also on its nature, distribution, causes and functions. This research paper aims to supply this information and to suggest policy measures to combat the shadow economy in today’s Azerbaijan. This research therefore has the following two specific objectives: To determine the present size of the shadow economy in Azerbaijan and to determine its nature and cause.
Research Interests:
This research was conducted by the experts of Economic Research Centre with the financial support from Open Society Institute-Assistance Foundation within the framework of competition titled “Assistance to analytical centres ”. The study... more
This research was conducted by the experts of Economic Research Centre with the financial support from Open Society Institute-Assistance Foundation within the framework of competition titled “Assistance to analytical centres ”. The study report prepared by ERC experts aims at improving the accuracy of the existing statistics by revealing problems with foreign trade statistics in Azerbaijan. With this purpose, the information describing the foreign trade turnover of 16 countries – Azerbaijan’s main foreign trade partners - was included in this research. Thus, the database for this research consists of customs statistics of the Republic of Azerbaijan, statistics of State Statistical Committee on the foreign trade, payment balance of Central Bank and official statistics of foreign countries on export-import operations with Azerbaijan. Using the “mirror statistics” methodlogy, the State Statisical Commitee data was compared with the sameperiod information on trade with Azerbaijan received from partner countries.. The calculation model based on this methodology allowed to define the amount of unregistered products imported and exported within a certain period. Trend analysis was conducted by using different comparison methodologies during the research. The research findings indicate the difference in import operations between Azerbaijan and its 16 major trade partner countries in the amount of ELOOLRQPLOOLRQ WKRXVDQG$ of 2003-2009. According to the “mirror statistics” methodoloy, difference in the same-period statistical information between countries does not cause any debates when it is below 10 percent. Thus, according to international methodology1, import exceeding export by 10% is deemed as normal. However, when import exceeds export by more than 10%, assumptions about other trade barriers and corruption are stipulated. Recommendations are prepared on the basis of these findings, to be further submitted to relevant state agencies. This study can be used by the employees of state agencies, representatives of local and international NGOs, representatives of the diplomatic corps in Azerbaijan, researchers, students and journalists.
Research Interests:
Azerbaijan has enjoyed a rapid run-up in government revenues from oil and natural-gas production in the period since 2005. Theory predicts that this run-up will trigger the Dutch Disease among Azerbaijani producers. In this paper, we... more
Azerbaijan has enjoyed a rapid run-up in government revenues from oil and natural-gas production in the period since 2005. Theory predicts that this run-up will trigger the Dutch Disease among Azerbaijani producers. In this paper, we report the initial findings of a survey of Azerbaijani producers designed to ascertain the importance of the symptoms of the Dutch Disease in Azerbaijan.1
The survey was administered in the summer of 2009. In structuring the questions for this survey, we thought it important to distinguish between any Dutch-Disease effects and any behavior caused by the international financial crisis. There are thus two sets of results to report – a first that chronicles the changes in microeconomic behavior due to the onset of the financial crisis, and a second that examines the differences in economic performance at the firm level that can be attributed to Dutch-Disease effects. As will be evident in our reporting of the results, there is substantial evidence of a shift in behavior at the firm level due to the financial crisis. There is less evidence that firm behavior in the sample can be distinguished as predicted in the DutchDisease literature.
The first section of this report provides some evidence of the scope of the oil and natural-gas windfall in Azerbaijan as well as the macroeconomic evidence of the financial crisis. The second outlines the theoretical predictions of the Dutch-Disease literature. The third section summarizes the responses of the survey questions and highlights the impact of the financial crisis on Azerbaijani firms. The fourth section examines the evidence of Dutch-Disease firm behavior in Azerbaijan. The fifth section concludes.
The survey was administered in the summer of 2009. In structuring the questions for this survey, we thought it important to distinguish between any Dutch-Disease effects and any behavior caused by the international financial crisis. There are thus two sets of results to report – a first that chronicles the changes in microeconomic behavior due to the onset of the financial crisis, and a second that examines the differences in economic performance at the firm level that can be attributed to Dutch-Disease effects. As will be evident in our reporting of the results, there is substantial evidence of a shift in behavior at the firm level due to the financial crisis. There is less evidence that firm behavior in the sample can be distinguished as predicted in the DutchDisease literature.
The first section of this report provides some evidence of the scope of the oil and natural-gas windfall in Azerbaijan as well as the macroeconomic evidence of the financial crisis. The second outlines the theoretical predictions of the Dutch-Disease literature. The third section summarizes the responses of the survey questions and highlights the impact of the financial crisis on Azerbaijani firms. The fourth section examines the evidence of Dutch-Disease firm behavior in Azerbaijan. The fifth section concludes.
This policy paper is an assessment of the current situation in management of oil revenues in Azerbaijan in order to find solutions for improving it. This policy paper is the result of research conducted by the research team of Economic... more
This policy paper is an assessment of the current situation in management of oil revenues in Azerbaijan in order to find solutions for improving it. This policy paper is the result of research conducted by the research team of Economic Research Center with the financial support of Revenue Watch Institute in 2013. In the paper, analysis was carried out on the macroeconomic environment, fiscal rules and legal bases for the management of oil revenues in Azerbaijan, policy of the management of oil revenues was evaluated, assessment was done on participation of policy makers, especially national oil fund, in the decision making process on the management of oil revenues, and their influences. In some instances the comparative analysis of superior and inferior features of oil revenues management was done taking Kazakhstan and Norway as the reference countries. The main aim of this policy paper is to assess the current situation of management of oil revenues in Azerbaijan, unfold its weaknesses and strengths, identify key problems and prepare alternative policies for solution of these issues.
The first part gives the general assessment by describing Azerbaijan‟s revenue management system; the second part diagnoses the problems; the third part analyzes the problems created by the inefficiencies in the legislative system; and the fourth part describes four possible futures depending on the choices taken today. This paper does not just diagnose the problem; it also offers solutions. It suggests specific fiscal rules that could be adopted by the Government of Azerbaijan to reduce volatility and improve the quality of public spending. It provides options for enforcing these fiscal rules. And it makes recommendations on improving the credibility of fiscal policy through enhanced transparency and accountability.
The readers of this policy paper will be informed about the outcomes of retrospective analysis of oil revenues in Azerbaijan as well as various options in management of oil revenues within the scope of current and perspective opportunities.
The first part gives the general assessment by describing Azerbaijan‟s revenue management system; the second part diagnoses the problems; the third part analyzes the problems created by the inefficiencies in the legislative system; and the fourth part describes four possible futures depending on the choices taken today. This paper does not just diagnose the problem; it also offers solutions. It suggests specific fiscal rules that could be adopted by the Government of Azerbaijan to reduce volatility and improve the quality of public spending. It provides options for enforcing these fiscal rules. And it makes recommendations on improving the credibility of fiscal policy through enhanced transparency and accountability.
The readers of this policy paper will be informed about the outcomes of retrospective analysis of oil revenues in Azerbaijan as well as various options in management of oil revenues within the scope of current and perspective opportunities.